I’ve seen a lot of posts on here as of late talking about GVT’s potential as a trading platform, and while that’s great and all, I’m here to tell you that’s not how this thing is going to play out in the long run. In the recent Medium article entitled “94,000 — Genesis Vision Token (GVT)” the author makes the case for a $94,000 GVT token by 2021. He made many good points, but there is one critical error he and most of the people in this community keep making. Day traders RARELY OUTPERFORM INVESTORS in the long run. The author based this argument on the assumption that, “a growth rate of 11.06% per week is sustainable in the future,” even saying it was, “VERY conservative.” Recently, I’ve have been seeing a bunch of posts and comments suggesting growth rates like this are reasonable, and I want to explain to everyone why it won’t happen.
1) Firstly, let’s address the results of the trader’s challenge. Yes, I understand what you’re thinking, “But the top five all had over 400% returns!” This is true, but if you took those same top five traders and had them repeat the challenge every week for the next year most would return to near the mean of the market. Even while monitoring the tournament I saw several traders go from top 5, 300% returns, to losses in less than 24 hours. For every trader that made ridiculous returns there were just as many losses, and you won’t be able to “pick the winners” because there will be different winners every period. It’s true that there will be some day traders that are able to outperform the market consistently, but after transaction costs and fees to manage, the best you could expect is a couple percent above market average. Here’s some evidence: http://technicalanalysis.org.uk/support-and-resistance/Curcio-etal1997.pdf
(Found it extremely difficult to outperform foreign currency exchange markets) http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/research.papers/day-trading-international-3-15-00.pdf
(Found that some traders were able to outperform market by roughly 20%, which is significant, but that’s likely a 1-1.5% increase in returns per year, before accounting for managing fees.) https://www.cfapubs.org/doi/sum/10.2469/faj.v59.n6.2578
(this study gives hope, finds it possible to day trade profitably, but again I question what the results would’ve been over a longer time frame)
2) Here’s what I will concede to those of you hoping for magical 11% returns per week (which by the way would turn 5k into over a million in less than a year). The cryptocurrency market is wild right now, and if 2018 picks back up and looks anything like 2017, you could expect massive returns, possibly even in the 1000s %. Additionally, wall street hasn’t entered the game yet, so for now, there is still room to take advantage of market irrationality. But trust me, when million-dollar algorithms (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u007Msq1qo
) are generating trades across the block from Coinbase or Binance every few milliseconds, there will be little room for day traders in the space. So, it isn’t that you can’t make money or even outperform the market, but it just won’t be as crazy and advantageous as you think.
3) This brings me to point three; the real value of GVT. Genesis Vision will do two things extremely well, it gives access to exposure from a wide variety of markets from one platform (cryptos, forex, Nasdaq, etc.), and it ensures trust. I personally am most excited about the wide access to markets through knowledgeable managers. I know nothing about technology stocks, but if I want exposure in that market, I can find a manager experienced in that area who is up to date on the latest news. The same goes for crypto. I found out about NANO at around a $1.50 and did well because of it, but my dad (who knows little about crypto and mostly owns the Coinbase coins) never had a chance. Now, he will be able to tie his capital to someone deeply involved in daily news and analysis in the crypto world, which as I’m sure many of us know, can feel like a full-time job. So, when fundamentals change, or new technology arrives on the scene, he isn’t late to the party. Then there is the aspect of trust. Users can verify that traders are handling their money correctly and legitimately generating the returns they are claiming. This could be huge in private equity markets if Genesis Vision really takes hold.
Sorry for the long post, but I just wanted to clear up a lot of the misconceptions flying around this sub. Sure there will be a place for day trading on GVT, but its real breakthroughs are easy access to markets through knowledgeable managers and trust. Also, I'm interested to hear your arguments because I am by no means an expert and I'm sure people will have a lot of stuff to disagree with me on.
I have a bit of a cringeworthy story about my first 2 months in the stock market. I asked one of the mods if it would be ok to post here and they thought it would be good for this sub. A little entertainment for the weekend. Keep in mind I am a college student, that saved about $7k over the summer. Ok, here we go:
I made a very dumb choice. One of the worst any new investor could make. I decided to start my investing experience in penny stocks.
It all started back in Aug. after the "crash". It seemed like a great time to get in. I checked a few subreddits and came across NETE (I'm still not sure exactly what they even do. Something about mobile payments.) It was all good for the first few weeks and I learned the basics to the stock market. However, I was down by about 5% but only had $200 in so no big sweat, right? Well I thought I was ready for real money (Biggest mistake of my life), so I invested $1300 more in it to cover my losses. This was money I already planned on investing.
Later that week I lost another 10%, price just dropped out of no where. Strange, but I wasn't too worried. The pumpers set my mind at ease and told me it would recover soon, so average down. After a few days there was no news looming, except a some insider investing and a pending SEC filing. So I thought, what the hell. Cant hurt to throw another $1000 at it. 10% up and I'll cover my losses and then some. The next day, it was announced that they were filling for reverse split and wanted to vote in a few months on it. Literally drove my portfolio down another about 10% in a day. I died a little inside but I accepted defeat.
While all this is going on I did happen to make a little money on the side with GBSN. $20 here, $40 there. So I decided to move my money there so I could make $200 here, $400 there. I was even more confident since, they just released some news that customer acquisition was up and the only thing against them were some outstanding warrants. But it seemed as though the warrants already drove the price down as much as it could go, so I was in a good place.
I got in with about $800 at 0.08 and watched it go to 0.10, cool beans right? Wrong again. I was invest investing in GBSN in increments to get the best average price possible. And had about $500 left so I got the bright idea out of thin air to YOLO my money in RXII because it was up about 0.10 that day and reached about 0.60 (mind you I had only over this stock on my Robinhood watch list a couple times). I thought I was catching it on a swing down since it dropped down to 0.55. I was going to ride it back up to 0.60 and get out. Well it went up to about 0.56 and just went down after that. For the rest of the day it lingered around 0.53-0.54 and then dropped down to 0.48 the next day. It was like the universe decided to hit me over the head with a sludge hammer and flip me off. I came to find out the price fell all because some penny stock alert told a bunch of people to pull out.
So at this point I'm in dumbfounded in complete awe. I didn't even make much money on GBSN because it was countered by RXII. Angered, I decided to stick with my original plan and pull out of GBSN (@ 0.09) and RXII (@ 0.48) and buy back in on the next swing down to .08. It usually made it back up to 0.09 some time in the week so it seemed like a quick trade. I put another
$1000 and bought back in @ .083. Well the SAME DAY., Nasdaq issued a delisting warning for GBSN and the price dropped lower than my IQ. Over the next couple of days it went all the way down to 0.06 and I decided I had enough. I finally got out at .059. After a few days of thinking I had it all settled, I decided I would get back in GBSN at .045 and ride the wave back up to at least .07. So I sold on Monday and waited for all of my money to clear, on Thursday so I could get back in and the price should be 0.05 or lower. Well just to my luck, Wednesday it went down to like .051 and shot up over 30% to like .07. I died a little more inside. I had to sit there and watch my brilliant plan go to shit while I'm sitting in class taking a test (teacher was sleep).
I woke up thursday morning and saw it was down for a bit but then jumped back up to like 0.075 so I got back in on a swing down to 0.072. It went back up to 0.075 but I just knew it was gonna go higher. Well it didnt. I literally went down to 0.07-0.0718 and stayed in that range for about 2hrs. I set my stop loss @ 0.0675 when I saw it drop break below 0.07 for the first time. It bounced between 0.068-0.071 but about an hour later it sold my position and GBSN was dropping ever since. At that moment I told myself I was done gambling like a bafoon and deleted all the penny stocks in my watchlist. I added Bank of America, Apple, Nokia, Netflix, and Ford to take their places. I had been watching these on and off for a while and doing a little dd on them. Tl;Dr
: Wanted a check, got REKT.
A message to new investors. Stay out of penny stocks! For now at least. It can be a great way to make a lot of money, when you know what you're doing. And you are probably smarter than me, but its a whole different beast than your standard day trading. They need CONSTANT attention. I spent most of my class periods and work hours glued to my phone, trying to make sure I didn't lose too much at once. Still got destroyed anyway.
Right now I have about $3100. I will not be adding any more in the see able future. I am tired of making idiotic decisions and want to turn my portfolio around. Please help me:
- How do you properly do DD? (List the things I should know before making any type of investment)
- How long should I watch a stock before getting in?
- What catalyst are most influential in affecting a stock's price?
- Are there any other suggestions on how to properly invest?
: Ok so a lot of people are stating "Hey, you were just gambling. You need to change you're mindset if you want to ever make any money. Stop investing in penny stocks" Thank you. I get it. I knew I was really just gambling instead of investing and wanted to change that. 1) The point of this is to warn others not to follow my mistakes, 2) Get some advice on how to change, 3) Give you guys a good story to laugh at. Edit 2
: I forgot to mention this, STAY THE HELL AWAY FORM STOCKTWITS. Especially if you do decide to get into penny stocks. It is literally ALL pumpers. No one listens to the bears and calls them crazy. You won't have a clear understanding of a company if all you listen to is the good? Edit 3
: Now I keep hearing people say I lost half my money and would have to double my current position to get it back in 6 months. 1) I didn't lose half of my money $1500+$3100=$4600. I don't have to double my money I to get it back. What I lost is about half of what I have seculeded right now for future investments. But honestly Im only focusing on a $1000 since I set that as my goal. 2) Im not expecting to make it back in exactly 6 months from today. I said 6 months to a year but I'm leaning closer to a year. And this is only after I believe I'm ready to get back in. Which may be awhile from now. Sorry about the miscommunication there
Just remembered something funny. My cousin was trying to me into the forex market and I thought I was going to take the easy way out with the stock market. One one hand the stock market is still not child's play and I underestimated it. On the other hand forex trading would have bankrupted me in days.
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